Fat tails in leading indicators
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Fat Tails
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The investment community is, by now, familiar with the idea of fat tails. The concept moved beyond the domain of actuaries and quant geeks with Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book The Black Swan (2007). Taleb drove home the point that volatility does not tell the whole story of the uncertainty associated with asset returns. In particular, extreme outcomes occur more frequently (i.e., tails are fatter)...
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How much environmental damage would result from unabated water pollution, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, toxic waste disposal, and other potentially destructive activities? And whatever that environmental damage is expected to be, what economic and social cost will it have? In other words, what is the benefit of taking costly actions today or in the near future to reduce rates of pollution and...
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Regime shifts are large, long-lasting changes in ecosystems. They are often hard to predict but may have leading indicators which are detectable in advance. Potential leading indicators include wider swings in dynamics of key ecosystem variables, slower return rates after perturbation and shift of variance towards lower frequencies. We evaluated these indicators using a food web model calibrate...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Economics Letters
سال: 2020
ISSN: 0165-1765
DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109317